Peter Todd @pete@petertodd.org

Yes, this is real.

They're finally admitting to the facts on masks, and why they just don't work well enough to matter.

https://rationalground.com/after-nine-months-we-still-know-masks-dont-work/

One layer: 50%
Two layers: 75%
Three layers: 90%
Plastic bag: 100%

Don't kill grandma. Make the right choice.

@verretor @jb55 @LadyAnarki I've read that exactly document. Haven't looked into it beyond that.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213668.shtml

"Beijing tests for COVID-19 using anal swabs, where virus may survive longer: experts"

This covid nonsense is getting to be a pain in the...

@verretor @jb55 @LadyAnarki Similar to Scuttlebutt then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCYCz186KAU

"Bitcoin History - Peter Todd and Guy Swann - Swan Signal Live E47"

"Peter Todd, a Bitcoin developer who has been around from the very beginning and even well before Bitcoin was released and Guy Swann who bought his first Bitcoin on Mt. Gox in early 2011, join us to dive into Bitcoin's fascinating history."

Live in three hours!

@jb55 @verretor @LadyAnarki heh, just like every old-school chat app...

@vladcostea @alyssa I mean, they are divisible... what about 1/10th of a modular synth rack?

@vladcostea "the joy of twisting knobs"

Pff, your puny guitar pedals got nothing on @alyssa's modular synths.

@vladcostea "You'd be surprised to see how easily they can turn into collectibles."

I mean, beanie babies were a thing...

Oh, just realized I'm not taking into account the fact that doses are being wasted on people who have already been infected. Depends on what the true % infected is. But likely for that to be between 20% and to even 80% wastage.

Also, natural infections may be more effective at leading to herd immunity, if the people who are getting infected are ones who have lots of contacts with others. Though that may not be consistent due to lockdown changing human contact patterns.

An unfortunate thing about all this is it's quite possible that we will *never* know. The vaccine basically destroys the evidence: we can only measure true infection rate by antibodies, and both an infection and a vaccination produce antibodies.

Sure, you can try to measure the people who didn't get vaccinated. But that's not a randomized sample.

Hopefully health authorities will have blood samples taken pre-vax to test later; many authorities would probably rather not know.

Now, the big caveat with all this is what is the false positive rate, and % of missed cases? I'm basing that 10x assumption on the results antibody testing kept on getting.

But as of right, now, that'd naively suggest that 70% of Israel's population has been infected, as 7% has tested positive. I'm _assuming_ during periods of lower incidence, a significant % was actually false positives, which is suggested by other studies.

But frankly, I don't know for sure! I'm not sure anyone does.

It's even worse in In Canada: we're vaccinating just 0.1%/day. And that figure is falling because we're running out of doses and aren't going to get more delivered for awhile.

Meanwhile, 0.014% are reported infected every day. So likely 0.14% actual.

Natural infections are immunizing Canadians at almost 3x the rate of the vaccination effort. And that'll probably get worse before it gets better due to Pfizer and Moderna''s production problems.

If you look at these stats objectively, even Israel's vaccination program is going badly.

Think about it: Israel is reporting 0.09% of the population is getting infected every day. The actual rate is likely 10x that: 0.9% infected/day.

Meanwhile, they're giving 2% of the population one dose per day.

A natural infection gets you ~100% immunity. A single dose, ~50%

So _even Israel_ is struggling to vaccinate people faster than they're becoming immune naturally. The US and UK aren't even close.