@drgo @lucash_dev The most dangerous vaccine I've ever gotten is the one for Yellow Fever, and it looks like it's at least an order of magnitude safer than the covid vaccines. _Far_ more safety data on it too.
@pete @drgo
I saw some comments on the preprint that led me to double check some numbers.
It’s weird but the denominator in the article seems to be off by more than 10x
They mention as the denominator all vaccine doses inoculated in the population in the Ottawa area during June and July. Their total is about 32k.
I downloaded the data from the link they provided and found about 800k.
…
@lucash_dev @drgo IIUC they're just adjusting for the fact that they got their data from one hospital out of many.
@lucash_dev @drgo ...and "as bad on average" means a lot of people are at much more risk, because covid's risk is dominated by the unhealthy.
@lucash_dev @drgo Re-reading it I think you're right re: them not doing that correction, as they point out they picked the only cardiac center.
@lucash_dev @drgo I think the ugly thing about this is in the circumstances we're in they'd make excuses for even a 1% myocarditis rate...
Absolutely. It also shows that incidence is likely at least 10x worse than VAERS based estimates — as expected. But they still use those estimates to “prove” it’s extremely rare.
They bet everything on this narrative that vax is “safe and effective” and they won’t let facts get in the way
@lucash_dev @drgo Hmm, I wonder if the issue was them mistakenly using the chart of non-residents vaccinated? That's about 60,000 over the study period. Or ~30,000 if you assume it was over one month rather than two.
@pete @drgo I thought about that.
Tried a bunch of different downloads and filters.
Maybe.
Another thing I thought is they might have taken the data originally from a different source then added the reference to the public data to make it easier for reviewers and didn’t double check.
Maybe the data they had was measured differently — vials instead of doses?
Who knows. Very weird
@lucash_dev @drgo Anyway as you say, assuming the denominator was simply wrong and the correct one is 800,000 doses, or 400k male doses, the rate per vaccination is 29/200,000 or 1/6900, which as you say, is still crazy high. It'd probably be even higher if you adjusted the denominator by age. And that's in line with other estimates.
Hopefully everyone with chest pains got help rather than assuming it was nothing...
@lucash_dev @drgo ...if not the #'s may be even higher due to undiagnosed cases.
Heck, I personally had a friend who got a heart attack while he was with me
While we cancelled the caving trip we were on, he didn't get actual medical help immediately as he quickly started feeling better again. When he finally did go to the hospital scans found it to be a genuine heart attack and he died a year later from a second heart attack. :/
@lucash_dev @drgo You realize the Ottawa population is just 994,000 right? 800k doses sounds way too high over that period given so many people bad already been vaccinated.
@lucash_dev @drgo Also their denominator is iiuc _innoculations_ rather than just doses.
I took a look at numbers for other months, it looks like most people got vaccinated within those two months. It’s also quite possible injections aren’t recorded at precise dates.
On the other hand it’s believed usual incidence of viral myocarditis is about 10-20 / 100k people*year.
That would mean 8-16 people in Ottawa per month.
So I think the study shows at worse a doubling of the risk.
My bet is the effects of vax are very similar to Covid.
Related development, likely informed by the research:
Their figure of virus being 18x more likely to have myocarditis from virus than vax is misleading.
For males between 18-24 it would mean 1/277 getting myocarditis from the virus, when less than 1/1,000 even are hospitalized.
It’s just a lie to make the vax look better.
@pete @drgo i keep my estimate that the risks from vax are likely comparable to risks from the virus for healthy people — for Pfizer
Moderna probably beats the virus.
On another note, I wonder if the risk of either is higher than a “normal” bad cold — which can cause myocarditis too.
At 22/100,000 cases per year, if on average healthy people have 1 bad cold every 5 years, it gives us about 1/5,000 myocarditis per bad cold episode!
@pete @drgo
they don’t mention that correction anywhere. But they do mention “vaccines in the whole Ottawa area”
They also mention they found 10x higher incidence than a previous study that found 1/100,000
10x would be 1/10,000 not 10/10,000.
I hope it *is* a mistake and the incidence is 1/10,000 — meaning about 1/2,500 for men and probably higher for teens.
Even then it’s already too unsafe for usual standards. It’s basically as bad as Covid on average.