@drgo @lucash_dev The most dangerous vaccine I've ever gotten is the one for Yellow Fever, and it looks like it's at least an order of magnitude safer than the covid vaccines. _Far_ more safety data on it too.
@pete @drgo
I saw some comments on the preprint that led me to double check some numbers.
It’s weird but the denominator in the article seems to be off by more than 10x
They mention as the denominator all vaccine doses inoculated in the population in the Ottawa area during June and July. Their total is about 32k.
I downloaded the data from the link they provided and found about 800k.
…
@lucash_dev @drgo IIUC they're just adjusting for the fact that they got their data from one hospital out of many.
@lucash_dev @drgo You realize the Ottawa population is just 994,000 right? 800k doses sounds way too high over that period given so many people bad already been vaccinated.
I took a look at numbers for other months, it looks like most people got vaccinated within those two months. It’s also quite possible injections aren’t recorded at precise dates.
On the other hand it’s believed usual incidence of viral myocarditis is about 10-20 / 100k people*year.
That would mean 8-16 people in Ottawa per month.
So I think the study shows at worse a doubling of the risk.
My bet is the effects of vax are very similar to Covid.
Related development, likely informed by the research:
Their figure of virus being 18x more likely to have myocarditis from virus than vax is misleading.
For males between 18-24 it would mean 1/277 getting myocarditis from the virus, when less than 1/1,000 even are hospitalized.
It’s just a lie to make the vax look better.
@pete @drgo i keep my estimate that the risks from vax are likely comparable to risks from the virus for healthy people — for Pfizer
Moderna probably beats the virus.
On another note, I wonder if the risk of either is higher than a “normal” bad cold — which can cause myocarditis too.
At 22/100,000 cases per year, if on average healthy people have 1 bad cold every 5 years, it gives us about 1/5,000 myocarditis per bad cold episode!
@lucash_dev @drgo Also their denominator is iiuc _innoculations_ rather than just doses.