Someone asked me to help them with a project, in person, just after I would have completed my 14 day quarantine after returning from the US. They changed their mind when I told them I wasn't vaccinated, as they were concerned about their immunosuppressed partner. Both are fully vaxed.
Let's run the numbers on this:
Ontario is reporting 300 covid cases a day, out of a population of 15 million. Assume true cases is 10x that. Ontario govt says asymptomatic transmission is up to 3 days.
Assume unvaxxed secondary transmission probability is 50%. Assume the partner had zero benefit from the vaccine, while the person had a 95% effectiveness.
(300*10*3/15000000)*0.5*0.05*0.5 = 7.5x10^-6 ~= 1 in 100,000 chance of the partner getting infected due to the person meeting me in person for the project.
...which is an absurdly conservative estimate, as when I would have met them, I would have just done three rounds of PCR testing. 😂
I'm not going to go into details for the sake of their privacy. But suffice to say the project in question isn't work related, and probably has about a 1 in 100,000 chance of one of us getting killed doing it just due to the driving involved. What we're actually doing for the project is probably 1 in 10,000 or worse.
...and yes, I actually ran the numbers on that 1 in 100,000 chance of dying due to the driving: about 1.2 deaths / 100 million miles, with a total of 1000km driven round trip between both of us.
This is very funny when you understand how it works... because viruses don't exist as such (they're a symptom rather than a cause), and covid/common cold/flu is nothing but vitamin D deficiency.
@mystik Meh, I'm not going to entertain silliness like claiming viruses don't exist.
For contagious diseases that can be spread by the type of contact that happens between doctors and patients, doctors certainly get infected by patients on occasion.
But the vast majority of actually contagious diseases are mild enough that doesn't matter: they only harm the very young, very old, and very sick. And of course, natural immunity is very real, so they aren't getting reinfected over and over.
>"doctors certainly get infected by patients on occasion"
See the lack of logic here?
Either it is a cause or it's not. And the truth is very obvious.
Contagion exists, and it's not a cause. Sounds paradoxical? It's not. It's just a catalyst.
After Bitcoin Miami, I did a bit of a road trip to Austin, Texas, driving a total of 1700 miles (I took the scenic route).
At 1.2 deaths / 100 million miles, I had a 20 in 1 million chance of dying in a car crash during that road trip.
For my 18 to 49 age group, the CDC estimates 500 deaths / 1 million covid infections.
For my risk of dying from covid caught at the conference to equal that of my road trip, you'd have to assume 4% of the conference got infected. 😂