Someone asked me to help them with a project, in person, just after I would have completed my 14 day quarantine after returning from the US. They changed their mind when I told them I wasn't vaccinated, as they were concerned about their immunosuppressed partner. Both are fully vaxed.
Let's run the numbers on this:
Ontario is reporting 300 covid cases a day, out of a population of 15 million. Assume true cases is 10x that. Ontario govt says asymptomatic transmission is up to 3 days.
I'm not going to go into details for the sake of their privacy. But suffice to say the project in question isn't work related, and probably has about a 1 in 100,000 chance of one of us getting killed doing it just due to the driving involved. What we're actually doing for the project is probably 1 in 10,000 or worse.
...and yes, I actually ran the numbers on that 1 in 100,000 chance of dying due to the driving: about 1.2 deaths / 100 million miles, with a total of 1000km driven round trip between both of us.
After Bitcoin Miami, I did a bit of a road trip to Austin, Texas, driving a total of 1700 miles (I took the scenic route).
At 1.2 deaths / 100 million miles, I had a 20 in 1 million chance of dying in a car crash during that road trip.
For my 18 to 49 age group, the CDC estimates 500 deaths / 1 million covid infections.
For my risk of dying from covid caught at the conference to equal that of my road trip, you'd have to assume 4% of the conference got infected. 😂
This is very funny when you understand how it works... because viruses don't exist as such (they're a symptom rather than a cause), and covid/common cold/flu is nothing but vitamin D deficiency.
@mystik Meh, I'm not going to entertain silliness like claiming viruses don't exist.
For contagious diseases that can be spread by the type of contact that happens between doctors and patients, doctors certainly get infected by patients on occasion.
But the vast majority of actually contagious diseases are mild enough that doesn't matter: they only harm the very young, very old, and very sick. And of course, natural immunity is very real, so they aren't getting reinfected over and over.
>"doctors certainly get infected by patients on occasion"
See the lack of logic here?
Either it is a cause or it's not. And the truth is very obvious.
Contagion exists, and it's not a cause. Sounds paradoxical? It's not. It's just a catalyst.
@pete nah its 50% he will die due to you not getting the jab or not die
we now have peer review stating again that no, it wasn't a thing.
@pete @mystik
>state falsehoods
>base argument around falsehoods
>start making claims from the fallacious argument based in lies
>gets called out on fundamental aspects of their argument
>ignored
@icedquinn The mRNA covid vaccines are completely synthetic and don't pose an infection risk like traditional live vaccines do.
In fact, they seem to be safest in people with weak immune systems. It's the younger, healthy, population that seems to be getting dangerous side effects from them. Probably in part due to their immune systems over reacting in certain ways.
Sounds like malpractice but what do I know.
@icedquinn There's highly suggestive evidence that covid vaccines do in fact increase your risk of getting covid temporarily. And prior vaccines have had temporary immunosuppressive effects. So yes, that could absolutely be happening.
Yet even then, for someone who is immunosuppressed, the higher chance of catching covid for a few days may be worth it in exchange for longer term protection. It's not an obvious decision.
Probably best for those ppl is get vaxed and quarantine for a few days.
@icedquinn Problem is, that sensible advice would require health authorities to admit that there are in fact trade-offs to these vaccines...
@pete
imagine if half of the emphasis for testing was placed on testing if you have had it and are now immune. there is a very high chance that you are a 'survivor' and don't even know it. Thus making the vaccination irrelevant.
Assume unvaxxed secondary transmission probability is 50%. Assume the partner had zero benefit from the vaccine, while the person had a 95% effectiveness.
(300*10*3/15000000)*0.5*0.05*0.5 = 7.5x10^-6 ~= 1 in 100,000 chance of the partner getting infected due to the person meeting me in person for the project.
...which is an absurdly conservative estimate, as when I would have met them, I would have just done three rounds of PCR testing. 😂